Global Thermal Coal Exports and Usage Reach Record Highs in 2024 Despite Renewable Energy Expansion
As the world races to reduce carbon emissions and embrace renewable energy, the persistence of coal in global energy systems continues to defy expectations. In 2024, global exports and consumption of thermal coal reached all-time highs, underscoring the complex challenges of the energy transition. This paradox emerges as the deployment of renewable energy accelerates across all major continents. Here, we explore the key factors contributing to this trend and the outlook for coal in the global energy mix.r
According to data from Kpler, global exports of thermal coal rose significantly in 2024, with an additional 9 million metric tons shipped during the first 11 months compared to the same period in 2023. December's export figures are expected to further increase as power utilities in the Northern Hemisphere stockpile coal for winter energy needs.
Top Coal Exporters
Indonesia: The world's leading coal exporter broke records in 2024, shipping over 500 million metric tons for the first time. This represents a major milestone for a country that has consistently dominated global coal markets.
Australia: Ranked second, Australia exported approximately 203 million metric tons of thermal coal.
Russia: Despite geopolitical tensions and sanctions, Russia exported 94 million metric tons.
South Africa: Contributed 55 million metric tons.
Colombia: Exported 50 million metric tons.
Together, these five countries accounted for a significant portion of global coal exports, illustrating their critical role in meeting global demand.
Global coal-fired electricity generation increased by approximately 2% in 2024, reaching an all-time high. Data from the energy think tank Ember reveals that coal-fired power plants remain pivotal for electricity generation in key markets, despite the rapid rollout of renewables.
Coal and the Global Power Mix
In 2024, coal-fired power emissions also hit record levels, reflecting the scale of its use.
The growth in coal usage is primarily driven by energy-intensive manufacturing and rising electricity demand in developing economies.
China, the world's largest consumer of coal, played a central role in this record-setting year. As of December 2024, China's thermal coal imports reached a record 340 million metric tons, an 8% increase from 2023. This remarkable growth highlights China's reliance on coal to meet its energy needs, even as it scales up renewable energy capacity.
Electricity Generation in China
Coal-fired power generation in China reached a record 4,838 terawatt-hours (TWh) in the first 10 months of 2024, marking a 2% increase from the previous year.
Coal's share in China's electricity generation dropped to a record low of 58.7%, down from nearly 62% in 2023 and over 66% in 2019. This decline indicates a gradual shift in the energy mix, but the sheer scale of China's energy needs keeps total coal consumption on a growth trajectory.
While China's renewable energy production continues to grow rapidly, the country’s dependence on coal remains significant. Over time, analysts expect China's total coal consumption to decline as renewables and other cleaner energy sources gain a larger share of the energy mix.
Several countries in Southeast Asia are emerging as key growth markets for coal imports and consumption. Economic expansion, industrial growth, and rising electricity demand have fueled record levels of coal usage in the region.
Key Countries Driving Growth:
Vietnam:
Coal imports surged by 24%, or nearly 7 million metric tons, in the first 11 months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Coal-fired electricity production in Vietnam increased by 17%, reflecting the country’s reliance on coal to power its growing industrial base.
Philippines and Malaysia:
Both countries set new records for coal imports, aligning with increases in coal-fired power generation to meet rising energy demands.
Thailand:
Coal imports increased by nearly 5%, supporting similar growth in coal-fired electricity generation.
These nations, while expanding renewable energy capacity, continue to depend heavily on coal for reliable and affordable energy, especially during periods of high demand.
Amid the overall increase in coal use, some of the world’s largest coal importers recorded significant declines in imports in 2024. Collectively, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Turkey reduced their coal imports by approximately 23.5 million metric tons during the first 11 months of the year.
Key Reductions
India:
The world’s second-largest coal importer cut imports by nearly 10 million metric tons, largely due to an increase in domestic coal production.
Despite these reductions, India still relies on coal for around 70% of its electricity generation, making periodic increases in coal imports likely in the future.
South Korea:
Imports fell by nearly 6 million metric tons as the country pursued decarbonization targets.
Japan:
The third-largest coal importer reduced coal imports by 3.1 million metric tons, marking its second consecutive year of declining coal purchases.
Taiwan:
Coal imports fell by 3.8 million metric tons.
Turkey:
Imports dropped by around 1 million metric tons in 2024 compared to 2023 levels.
Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are particularly noteworthy for their steady progress toward reducing coal reliance. These countries have embraced ambitious decarbonization targets, with investments in nuclear power, renewable energy, and energy efficiency initiatives driving the transition.
While the continued expansion of coal exports and consumption may disappoint climate advocates, there are signs of progress toward decarbonization:
Slowing Export Growth:
The pace of export growth slowed to just 1% in 2024, the smallest annual increase since 2020.
Renewable Energy Gains:
In many countries, the share of electricity generated from renewable sources is rising, gradually displacing coal.
China’s Energy Transition:
Despite increasing coal use, China’s declining share of coal in electricity generation signals a potential peak in coal consumption in the near future.
Despite short-term increases in coal use, the long-term outlook suggests a gradual decline as countries implement decarbonization strategies and expand renewable energy capacity. Key factors influencing the future of coal include:
Economic Growth vs. Decarbonization Goals:
Rapid economic growth in countries like India, Vietnam, and the Philippines may sustain coal demand in the short term. However, these nations are also investing in renewable energy, which is expected to reduce coal’s share in the energy mix over time.
Global Decarbonization Targets:
Major coal-importing nations have set mid-century targets to transition to low-carbon energy systems, which should drive sustained reductions in coal consumption.
Technology Advancements:
Innovations in energy storage, grid infrastructure, and renewable energy technologies are making clean energy more competitive, further diminishing coal’s role in global energy systems.
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